Hafta 1
Introduction September 23 and 27 1 Foreign Policy Analysis September 30, October 4 week Required readings: Hudson, Valerie and Benjamin S. Day. 2020. Foreign Policy Analysis. 3rd Edition. Rowman and Littlefield. Pp. 1-188
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2 Foreign Policy Analysis October 11 week Required readings: Hudson, Valerie and Benjamin S. Day. 2020. Foreign Policy Analysis. 3rd Edition. Rowman and Littlefield. Pp. 1-188
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3 Earlier Works October 18 week Required readings: Rosenau. 1968. “Comparative Foreign Policy: Fad, Fantasy, or Field?” International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 12. pp. 296-329 Rosenau. 1984. “A Pre-Theory Revisited: World Politics in an Era of Cascading Interdependence.” International Studies Quarterly Vol. 28: pp. 245-305. Carolyn C. James and Özgür Özdamar. “Modeling Foreign Policy and Ethnic Conflict: Turkey's Policies towards Syria”, Foreign Policy Analysis 5, Issue 1, (2009): 475-494. Recommended Readings: McGowan, Patrick J., and Howard B. Shapiro. (1973) The Comparative Study of Foreign Policy: A Survey of Scientific Findings. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. (Introduction Ch., Ch.2) Snyder et al. 2002. Foreign Policy Decision-Making. 1-152.
Hafta 4
4 Rational Choice Perspectives October 24 Week Required readings: Allison, Graham T. 1969. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” American Political Science Review. 63: 689-718. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2010. “Foreign Policy Analysis and Rational Choice Models.” In (Ed.) Robert Denemark. ISA Compendium . Hermann and Hermann. 1989. “Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How.” International Studies Quarterly. 33: 361-387. Zeynep Taydaş and Özgür Özdamar, “A Divided Government, an Ideological Parliament, and an Insecure Leader: Turkey’s Indecision about Joining the Iraq War.” Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 94, Issue 1 p. 217-241, March 2013. Morrow, James. 1997. “A Rational Choice Approach to International Conflict” in Decisionmaking on War and Peace. Recommended readings: Zagare. 2004. “Reconciling Rationality with Deterrence.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 16: 107-141. Stein and Welch. 1997. “Rational and Psychological Approaches to the Study of International Conflict” in Decisionmaking on War and Peace. Quackenbush, Stephen. 2004. “The Rationality of Rational Choice Theory.” International Interactions. 30: 87-107.
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Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2002. “The End of Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property” in Predicting Politics. pp. 78-97. Özdamar, Özgür. “Oyun Kuramının Uluslararası İlişkiler Yazınına Katkıları,” Uluslararası İlişkiler, 4, Issue 15 (2007): 33-66. Özdamar, Özgür. 2019. “An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program”. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace. Volume 8, No: 2, pp. 205-230. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2002. “Tools for Predicting Politics” in Predicting Politics. pp. 50-77 Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2002. “Political Institutions, Policy Choice and the Survival of Leaders.” British Journal of Political Science. 32: 559–590. Bennett and Stam. 2006. “Predicting the Length of the 2003 Iraq War.” Foreign Policy Analysis. 2: 101-116. Özdamar, Özgür. “Dış Politika Karar Alımı Sürecinde Lider Merkezli Yaklaşım: Akılcı Tercih Kuramı ve Türkiye'Nin Irak Savaşına Katılmama Kararı” Dış Politika Teorileri Bağlamında Türk Dış Politikasının Analizi. Ed.
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Operational Code Analysis Nov 1 Week Required readings: George, Alexander L. 1969. “The Operational Code: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision Making.” International Studies Quarterly. 23: 190-222. Walker, Stephen G., Mark Schafer, and Michael Young. 1998. “Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis.” International Studies Quarterly. 42: 175-190. Özgür Özdamar. “Leadership Analysis at a ‘Great Distance’: Using Operational Code Construct to Analyze Islamist Leaders.” Global Society. Volume 31, Issue 2, 2017. Özdamar, Özgür and Sercan Canbolat. “Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach,” With Sercan Canbolat, Political Research Quarterly. Vol 71, No 1, pp. 19-31. Özdamar, Özgür and Erdem Ceydilek. 2019. “European populist radical right leaders’ foreign policy beliefs: An operational code analysis”, with Erdem Ceydilek, European Journal of International Relations. Article first published online: May 30, 2019.
Hafta 7
Ideas, National Images and Role Conceptions Nov 8 Week Required readings: Holsti, K. J. 1970 National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy. International Studies Quarterly 14(3): 233-309 Thies, C. 2010. “Role Theory and Foreign Policy.” ISA Compendium Project. Ed: Robert E. Denmark. Blackwell Publishing. Akbaba, Yasemin and Özgür Özdamar. 2019. Role Theory in the MENA. Routledge Press.
Hafta 8
Required readings: Holsti, Ole. 1992. “Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Challenges of the Almond Lippmann Consensus.” International Studies Quarterly. 36: 439-466. Jentleson, Bruce W. 1992. “The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force.” International Studies Quarterly 36: 49-73. Özdamar, Özgür and Zeynep Taydaş. “Foreign Policy, Public Opinion and the Iraq War: The Turkish Case”, International Public Opinion and the Iraq War, eds. Richard Sobel, Bethany Barratt and Peter Furia. Forthcoming, 2012.
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Levy, Jack S. 1997. “Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations.” International Studies Quarterly. 41: 87–112. Mintz, Alex. 2003. Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. Ch. 1, 7, and 9. Özdamar, Özgür and Okhan Erciyas. 2019. "Turkey and Cyprus: A Poliheuristic Analysis of Decisions During the Crises of 1964, 1967 and 1974". Foreign Policy Analysis. Article first published online: 13 August 2019.
Hafta 10
Required readings: George, Alexander L. 1980. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy. Ch. 1-6. Hermann and Preston. 1994. “Presidents, Advisors and Foreign Policy.” Political Psychology. 15: 75-96. Mitchell, David. 2005. “Centralizing Advisory Systems.” Foreign Policy Analysis. 2: 181-206. Recommended readings: Kaarbo and Beasley. 2008. “Taking it to the Extreme.” Foreign Policy Analysis. 4: 67 Bak and Palmer. 2010. “Testing the Biden Hypothesis.” Foreign Policy Analysis. 6: 257-274.
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10 Integration and Future of TFP/FPA Studies: How to explain TFP? December 6 Required readings: Hudson, Valerie and Benjamin S. Day. 2020. Foreign Policy Analysis. 3rd Edition. Rowman and Littlefield. Pp. 189-230
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10 Integration and Future of TFP/FPA Studies: How to explain TFP? December 6 Required readings: Hudson, Valerie and Benjamin S. Day. 2020. Foreign Policy Analysis. 3rd Edition. Rowman and Littlefield. Pp. 189-230
Hafta 13
Contact hours with instructor about your paper/Project
Hafta 14
Presentation of projects.