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MAN 451

Decision Analysis

Decision Analysis is about giving structure to choices made under uncertainty—turning vague managerial judgment into something you can actually reason about with probabilities, payoffs, and preferences. You'll spend the term building decision trees and influence diagrams, doing Bayesian updates to price the value of information, and eliciting utility functions to capture how a real person trades off risk against reward, with the workload split across quizzes, two projects, and regular homeworks rather than a midterm-heavy grade. It sits at the intersection of statistics and management practice, so it pairs well with operations and finance electives and pays off anywhere you later have to defend a recommendation when the data is thin and the stakes aren't.

Credit3ECTS5FacultyFaculty of Business AdministrationBölümManagementPreECON 221 and MAN 256

Değerlendirme 100% — 4 adım

30%
20%
20%
30%
Quiz QUIZZES 30%
Final:Essay/written FINAL 20%
Project PROJECTS 20%
IN-CLASS ACTIVITIES AND HOMEWORKS IN-CLASS ACTIVITIES AND HOMEWORKS 30%

Önerilen kaynaklar 1 kitap

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Zorunlu
DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MANAGEMENT JUDGMENT
PAUL GOODWIN & GEORGE WRIGHT
5th Edition · Wiley

Haftalık müfredat 14 hafta

Hafta 1
Overview of Decision Analysis: Concepts and Definitions
Hafta 2
Systematic Approaches to Making Decisions: Some Simple Approaches
Hafta 3
Decision Making under Uncertainty/Risk
Hafta 4
Decision Making under Uncertainty/Risk
Hafta 5
Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams
Hafta 6
Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams
Hafta 7
Bayesian Analysis, Revising Judgment and Value of Information
Hafta 8
Utility Theory
Hafta 9
Utility Theory
Hafta 10
Behavioural Perspectives on Decision Analysis
Hafta 11
The Nature and Analysis of Judgment
Hafta 12
Heuristics and Biases in Managerial Decision Making
Hafta 13
Group Decisions vs Individual Decisions
Hafta 14
Group Decisions

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Geçmiş GPA dağılımı 16 dönem · ort. 2.90

DönemCourse CPA
2023-2024 Spring 2.86 1 sec · 36 öğr
2022-2023 Spring 2.95 1 sec · 42 öğr
2021-2022 Spring 2.82 1 sec · 48 öğr
2020-2021 Spring 2.99 1 sec · 46 öğr
2019-2020 Spring 2.82 1 sec · 12 öğr
2018-2019 Spring 2.61 1 sec · 53 öğr
2016-2017 Fall 3.39 1 sec · 42 öğr
2015-2016 Fall 2.74 2 sec · 104 öğr
2014-2015 Fall 2.71 2 sec · 119 öğr
2013-2014 Fall 2.93 2 sec · 99 öğr

Aggregate course GPA — Bilkent STARS'tan public data. Hoca-bazlı per-section detayı için STARS evaluation report →. Öğrenci anket cevapları KVKK kapsamında defter'de tutulmaz.

⚠️ FZ engelleyen şartlar

In order to be eligible to take the final exam, a student needs to complete at least two quizzes. Students who do not meet this criterion will be assigned an FZ grade, and thus will not be able to take the final exam.

Hocalar 0 bu dönem · 4 geçmiş

Geçmişte ders veren (4 kişi)
Yasemin Limon, Ebru Güven, Dilek Önkal, Ayşe Kocabıyıkoğlu